Reflecting on FFT Education Datalab’s November 2025 findings
Source: Pupil absence at the start of autumn term 2025, FFT Education Datalab (Nov 2025)

FFT’s latest analysis looks at pupil absence up to 24 October 2025, based on data from around 10,000 schools using the FFT Attendance Tracker. The picture it paints is one of stability — but not yet improvement.

Headline Findings

Here’s what FFT reports:

1. Absence rates are almost identical to last year

• Primary schools: around 4.7% of sessions missed
• Secondary schools: around 7.3%
  These figures are “broadly unchanged” from the same point in Autumn 2024.

2. Only tiny shifts by absence type

FFT notes extremely small changes in how absence is classified:

• Primary: a slight decrease in illness-related authorised absence, offset by a tiny increase in other authorised absence
• Secondary: a small reduction in unauthorised absence
  All shifts are less than 0.1 percentage point — too small to be considered meaningful trends.

3. Disadvantage gap remains large

A major part of FFT’s analysis focuses on Year 7, where the divide between pupils eligible for free school meals (FSM6) and their peers is stark:

• FSM6 pupils are twice as likely to miss a session for any reason
• And roughly three times as likely to miss school for unauthorised reasons
  FFT highlights this as a persistent challenge.

4. Persistent and severe absence show mixed patterns

Looking at all pupils:

• Persistent absence (10%+) has shown small improvements in recent years
• Severe absence (50%+) has Increased in secondary & Stayed flat in primary

FFT stresses that these patterns remain well above pre-pandemic benchmarks.

5. No clear evidence (yet) of impact from new initiatives

Although attendance has become a major policy focus, FFT states plainly that there is no evidence yet that recent initiatives have changed absence rates. They add this does not mean the initiatives won’t work — only that no detectable improvement has appeared in the early autumn data.

What This Actually Tells Us

Based solely on FFT’s analysis:

1. Attendance hasn’t worsened — but the bar remains too low

Stability might sound reassuring, but it means that elevated absence levels are continuing rather than easing.

2. The stagnation is the story

With year-on-year consistency, FFT suggests we may be looking at a “new normal” unless additional action shifts the trend.

3. Disadvantage continues to be the sharpest dividing line

FFT’s Year 7 comparison shows the attendance gap is not narrowing. This remains one of the most pressing structural issues identified.

4. Severe absence is becoming more concentrated

An increase in severe absence within secondary schools is worrying: these are pupils at very high risk of long-term disengagement.

5. It’s too early to judge the effect of new attendance policies

FFT is careful not to dismiss current initiatives — they simply point out that no improvement is visible yet.

Final Reflection

FFT’s autumn-term snapshot is a reminder that holding steady is not the same as recovering. The picture is neither collapsing nor improving — simply stuck.

For those of us following attendance closely, this raises important questions for the months ahead:

• Will attendance improve as autumn turns to winter — or stay flat?
• Are severe absence levels a warning sign of deeper issues?
• Can new interventions take effect quickly enough to help this cohort?

For now, FFT’s analysis gives us clarity, even if it doesn’t give us comfort:
absence is no worse — but still too high.

Source: Katie Beynon, FFT Education Datalab (Nov 2025).